NTPC stands for National Thermal Power Corporation. It is involved in the generation and sale of bulk power to state power to state power utilities. The other business of NTPC are of the group includes providing consultancy, project management & supervision, energy trading, oil & gas exploration and coal mining.
NTPC Limited is engaged in the generation of electricity. The Company is engaged in the generation and sale of bulk power to state power utilities.
Key takeaways
Vision of NTPC
The company wants to expand its power capacity from 63 MW to 130 MW by 2032. It also aims to increase its concentration of non-fossil fuel assets from 7% of total capacity to 30% by 2032.
Power plant portfolio
As of Jun 2020, the company has a powerful portfolio of 63,000 MW from 70 power plants.
Out of total capacity, 83% comes from coal plants, followed by gas/ liquid fuel plants (10%), hydro (5%) & renewables (2%).
It owns 17% of the total installed capacity in India with a 22% share in electricity generation in India.
The company’s allocated capacity is well-diversified across regions. As of April 2021, none of a single region contributes more than 40% of the total allocated capacity of the company.
High PLF factor
PLF is the ratio of average power generated by the plant to the maximum power that could have been generated in a given time.
NTPC has been operating at higher PLF from its thermal power stations as compared to All India thermal PLF for the last 5 years. It achieved PLF of 68% in FY20 while all India Thermal PLF was only 56% for the same year.
Under Construction Assets
As of June 2020, NTPC has ~20,500 MW of power projects under various construction phases. Presently, 76% of under-construction capacity is from coal projects, followed by Hydro (13%) and Renewable energy (wind, solar).
High Coal Need
The NTPC coal requirement of almost 175 MnTPA is fulfilled by Coal India Ltd (CIL) and Singareni Collieries Company Ltd (SCCL)
NTPC owns 3 coal blocks i.e. Pakri Barwadih, Dulanga & Talaipalli coal mines.
The ultimate capacity of these mines is 103 MnTPA when all mines reach their peak capacity. The company managed to produce only 11.15 MMT or only 11% of peak capacity in FY20. It aims to produce 15 MMT in FY21.
The estimated geographical reserves of these coal blocks are 7.3 billion tonnes.
NTPC Today
 | Utilities |
 | Utilities—Independent Power Producers |
 | NTPC Bhawan, New Delhi, India |
 | India |
 | 91 11 2438 7333 |
 | http://www.ntpc.co.in |
NTPC Chart
NTPC index presence
National Thermal Power Corporation(NTPC) present in 41 indices
| NIFTYSERVICE | NIFTY ENERGY | NIFTY100WEIGHT | NIFTYEQWGT | NIFTY100 | NIFTY50 | NIFTY500 | NT100LOW30 |
| NIFTY200 | NV20 | NIFTYCDTY | NIFTYINFRAST | NIFTYPSE | NIFTYDIVOPPT | NIFTYCPSE | NFTALL030 |
| NFTALQLV30 | NIFTY500VAL50 | NIFTYGEMID250 | NIFTYLOWVOL | SENSEX | BSE500 | SNSX50 | BSE100 |
| BSEPSU | LMI250 | ALLCAP | LRGCAP | BASE100LARGECAPTMC | BHRT22 | POWER | CARBONEX |
| UTILS | CPSE | SPBSLVIP | S&PDIVSTABLE | SPBSEVIP | ESG100 | BSEINFRA | S&PLARGEMIDCAP |
NTPC Infographics
Overview of NTPC Stock
Key takeaways
- Intrinsic Value is lower than current price of stock
- Good return on equity compared to fixed-deposits (FDs)
- NTPC offers good dividend in return
- No red flags, Stock is not ASM/GSM list and no promoter holding is pledged.
Key Metrics
| PE Ratio | Sector PE | PB Ratio | Sector PB | Dividend Yield | Sector Dividend Yield |
| 8.40 | 23.64 | 0.95 | 2.62 | 4.85% | 1.62% |
Read more about PE ratio with infographics | Read more about dividend and dividend yield with infographics
Financials of NTPC Stock
Income Statement of NTPC Stock
Key takeaways
Higher than industry revenue growth
Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 9.6%, vs industry avg of 5.3%
Increasing market shares
Over the last 5 years, market share increased from 54.12% to 66.11%
Higher than industry net income
Over the last 5 years, net income has grown at a yearly rate of 6.26%, vs industry avg of 4.47%
Income Statement Table
| Financial Year | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | fy2020 | fy2021 |
| Total Revenue | 93,769.53 | 1,03,278.94 | 1,17,721.80 | 1,18,213.84 |
| EBITDA | 28,060.96 | 25,528.23 | 39,794.69 | 39,064.45 |
| PBIT | 20,601.03 | 16,859.20 | 29,438.53 | 26,614.14 |
| PBT | 16,154.44 | 11,254.55 | 21,249.52 | 17,389.93 |
| Net Income | 10,543.95 | 13,736.68 | 11,600.23 | 14,634.63 |
| EPS | 10.66 | 13.88 | 11.72 | 14.94 |
| DPS | 4.27 | 6.08 | 3.15 | 6.15 |
| Payout ratio | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 0.41 |
Balance statements of NTPC Stock
Key takeaways
Lower than Debt to equity ratio
Over the last 5 years, the debt to equity ratio has been 144.35%, vs industry avg of 173.91%
Higher than industry current ratio
Over the last 5 years, the current ratio has been 79.28%, vs industry avg of 70.91%
Balance Sheet Table
| Financial year | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 |
| Total Assets | 2,82,492.26 | 3,46,922.99 | 3,77,569.00 | 3,98,100.36 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,77,981.02 | 2,32,658.58 | 2,55,412.65 | 2,68,838.18 |
| Total Equity | 1,04,511.24 | 1,14,264.41 | 1,22,156.35 | 1,29,262.18 |
| Total Shares Outstanding | 989.43 | 989.46 | 989.46 | 969.67 |
Cash Flow statement of NTPC Stock
Key takeaways
Higher than industry cash flow growth
Over the last 5 years, free cash flow growth has been 25.04%, vs industry avg. of 12.16%
Cash Flow Table
| Financial Year | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | fy2020 | fy2021 |
| Net change in cash | 19.28 | -450.88 | 265.78 | 360.50 |
| Changes in working capital | -3,897.13 | -10,952.96 | -8,690.84 | -2,239.65 |
| Capital expenditure | 18,766.28 | 21,606.90 | 18,230.44 | 23,312.34 |
| Free cash flow | 903.33 | -2,921.25 | 5,659.23 | 9,131.72 |
Peers of NTPC Stocks
PEERS Table of NTPC Stock
| Stock | PE Ratio | PB Ratio | Dividend Yield |
| NTPC Stock Ltd | 8.4 | 0.95 | 4.85% |
| JSW Energy Ltd | 72.31 | 3.97 | 0.57% |
| Adani Power Ltd | 29.46 | 2.83 | — |
| CESC Ltd | 8.21 | 1.06 | 5.49% |
Key takeaway
- NTPC stock and CESC Ltd are almost equal in PE ratio and Dividend yield.
- JSW Energy Ltd have highest PE ratio of 72.31 than its competitors
- Adani Power Ltd gives decent PE and PB ratio but dividend yield
| Investors | Sep-18 | Dec-18 | Mar-19 | Jun-19 | Sep-19 | Dec-19 | Mar-20 | Jun-20 | Sep-20 | Dec-20 | Mar-21 | Jun-21 |
| Promoters | 61.77 | 58.93 | 56.09 | 56.41 | 54.5 | 54.14 | 51.02 | 51.02 | 51.02 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 |
| FIIs | 11.6 | 11.66 | 11.48 | 11.64 | 12.09 | 12.76 | 12.64 | 11.43 | 11.38 | 12.32 | 11.94 | 13.13 |
| DIIs | 23.53 | 26.1 | 28.73 | 28.44 | 30.65 | 30.55 | 33.46 | 34.58 | 34.87 | 33.45 | 33.93 | 32.93 |
| Government | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Public | 3.09 | 3.3 | 3.38 | 3.51 | 2.64 | 2.47 | 2.78 | 2.87 | 2.59 | 2.99 | 2.89 | 2.76 |
Promoter Holdings Trend
1. Total promoter holding In the last 6 months, promoter holding in the company has almost stayed constant
2. Low pledged promoter holding Pledged promoter holdings is insignificant
Institutional Holdings Trend
1. Mutual fund holding In the last 3 months, the mutual fund holding of the company has almost stayed constant
2. Increased foreign institutional holding In the last 3 months, foreign institutional holding of the company has increased by 1.18%
Key takeaway
- Promoters have most holdings investment in NTPC stock. But it is getting lower year to year as compared to year 2018 to year 2021. It is reduced by 9 to 10%.
- FIIs(Foreign Institutional Investors) increased their stakes in NTPC by 2% compared to year 2018.
- Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also increased their investments 23.53% to 32.93% in the year 2021.
- Government and Public have decent investment in NTPC stocks.
Dividend and Split
Dividends
| Cash Dividend | Dividend/Share | Ex Date |
| Final | ₹3.15 | 8-Sep-21 |
| Cash Dividend | Dividend/Share | Ex Date |
| Interim | ₹3.00 | 11-Feb-21 |
| Cash Dividend | Dividend/Share | Ex Date |
| Final | ₹2.65 | 13-Aug-20 |
| Cash Dividend | Dividend/Share | Ex Date |
| Interim | ₹0.50 | 26-Mar-20 |
| Cash Dividend | Dividend/Share | Ex Date |
| Final | ₹2.50 | 13-Aug-19 |
Key takeaway
- NTPC stock have given attractive dividend per share recently on 8 September 2021
- NTPC stock is giving regular dividend to the shareholders twice in last 2 years
- This stock is offering dividend yield of 4.85%
Read more about dividend and dividend yield with infographics
Bonus/Split
| Buyback | Ratio | Ex Date |
| Tender Offer | — | 12-Nov-20 |
| Bonus | Ratio | Ex Date |
| 1:5 Bonus Issue of Equity Shares | 1:05 | 19-Mar-19 |
Key takeaway
- NTPC stock offered 1:5 bonus split of stock in 2019
Read more about stock split and bonus with infographics
Strength & Limitations of NTPC
Strengths
- The Company has been maintaining an effective average operating margins of 26.05% in the last 5 years.
- Company’s PEG ratio is 0.26.
- The company has an efficient Cash Conversion Cycle of 51.74 days.
- The company has a good cash flow management; CFO/PAT stands at 1.88.
- The company has a high promoter holding of 51.10%.
Limitations
- The company has shown a poor revenue growth of 5.90% for the Past 3 years.
- Tax rate is low at 12.27.
Expert Forecast of NTPC Stock
Future stock price targets of NTPC stock
| The target of NTPC Stock | Future Stock Price(Rs.) |
| Year 2022 | 147 |
| Year 2025 | 170 |
| Year 2030 | 217 |
| Year 2035 | 277 |
| Year 2040 | 353 |
Please Note
These are the stock forecast or stock predictions solely based on historical data and related estimates by industry experts. Please do take advice from certified people and then go for investment.
Here predictions are just data for your information. We here declare that the stock forecast team does not responsible for any price changes or the price does not go expected. At last, it is solely based on how the stock market is running at that certain conditions.
Stock Forecast Team View
Key takeaways
- NTPC have CAGR of 2.3% which is not very good compared to its peers in the sector.
- EPS and PE are also low, due to this stock price is low as of now.
- ROA and ROE is decent in case of NTPC stock.
Our Predictions (If we purchase 1000 qty. shares at current Rs.140)
- These predictions or stock forecast based on CAGR of NTPC stock.
- In 2022, your investment of 14000 could reach 14322
- After 5 years it can be worth upto 15686
- After 10 Years, value would be 17575
- After 15 years, investment could touch 20000
- and after 25 years it can be more than 24000
Please note These predictions or forecasts are calculated with the current average CAGR of the NTPC stock.
Conclusion
Looking above all the fundamental analysis of NTPC stock
- This stock is worth buy and gives return better than fixed-deposits.
- But when we calculate future value, this stock is not giving returns compared to its peers.
- If this CAGR rate continues then your investment of 14000 could touch 25000 in 25 years, which is very low return than expectation.
- NTPC stock gave good dividend in the past and the dividend return is increased than past number.
- Next Bonus or split can come in next upcoming years.
- Stock forecast team honestly will not suggest to invest in this stock because, after calculations NTPC stock is not giving valuable returns to the investor.
Frequently Asked Questions
Ans: NTPC stock is a good and stable share but it didn’t offer a good return in past. After calculating its rising EPS and PE, this stock could reach 147 in the year 2022. 170 in 2025, 217 in 2030, and can reach up to 350 in the year 2040.
Ans: Over the last few years EPS is grown by 13%. If it continues then Investors can expect stable growth in the future. I have already derived some NTPC stock predictions, please do read the above post to get the important fundamental analysis of NTPC stock.
Ans: NTPC offered a good dividend in fact this stock gave dividends twice a year for consecutively 2 years. Its dividend price is increasing year by year.
Ans: No, NTPC stock is not debt-free. It has a debt of Rs.1,74,488.61 Cr
Ans: NTPC stock is a good and stable share but it didn’t offer a good return in past. After calculating its rising EPS and PE, this stock could reach 147 in the year 2022. 170 in 2025, 217 in 2030, and can reach up to 350 in the year 2040.
